DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. Kyle Buschs comfortable Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup bonus points lead suddenly doesnt look all that insurmountable.
Two weeks ago, Jimmie Johnson won at Indianapolis and collected 10 Chase bonus points, pushing his season total to 20. A week later at Pocono, Carl Edwards won, and pushed his bonus point total to 30.
In both those races, Busch, the Chase bonus points leader with 70, finished outside the top 10.
The future looks even more promising for Edwards and Johnson, who either lead or closely rival Busch in pre-race Driver Rating at three of the final five tracks in the Race to the Chase (the 10 races that precede the Chase):
Watkins Glen
Pre-Race
| Driver | Driver Rating | Rank |
|---|
| Jimmie Johnson | 104.5 | 5th |
| Carl Edwards | 85.6 | 10th |
| Kyle Busch | 84.9 | 11th |
Michigan
Pre-Race
| Driver | Driver Rating | Rank |
|---|
| Carl Edwards | 112.5 | 1st |
| Jimmie Johnson | 108.2 | 2nd |
| Kyle Busch | 90.8 | 11th |
Auto Club Speedway (California)
Pre-Race
| Driver | Driver Rating | Rank |
|---|
| Jimmie Johnson | 114.7 | 1st |
| Kyle Busch | 109.9 | 3rd |
| Carl Edwards | 105.6 | 4th |
This weekends race could be most telling of all and the wild card in the Race to the Chase.
It is hard to predict how the final running order will shake out at Watkins Glen. Both Johnson and Edwards hold a distinct statistical advantage over Busch. On the other hand, Busch dominated at Infineon Raceway in June the only other road course race on the schedule after having only moderate career success there in previous years.
Then theres two-time champion Tony Stewart who could certainly sneak his way into the Chase bonus points battle despite his winless 2008.
Stewart has wins at four of the remaining five Race to the Chase tracks (four wins at Watkins Glen, three at Richmond and one each at Bristol and Michigan).
The long climb would likely start this weekend at the Watkins Glen road course, where Stewart has won three of the last four races including last season, his last victory in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competition.
His Watkins Glen statistics since the inception of Loop Data in 2005 are phenomenal (all driver logs can be found on NASCARMedia.com):
Tony Stewart at Watkins Glen (2005-2007)
| Year | | | Finish | | | ARP | | | FLR | | | LT15 | | | DR | | | Led |
|---|
| 8/05 | | | | 1 | | | | 1.5 | | | | 39 | | | | 100 | | | | 150.0 | | | | 83 |
| 8/06 | | | | 2 | | | | 3.4 | | | | 14 | | | | 100 | | | | 130.1 | | | | 7 |
| 8/07 | | | | 1 | | | | 5.0 | | | | 23 | | | | 91.1 | | | | 133.6 | | | | 20 |
| Total | | | | 1.3 | | | | 3.3 | | | | 76 | | | | 97.1 | | | | 137.9 | | | | 110 |
ARP: Average Running Position
FLR: Fastest Laps Run
LT15:Percentage of Laps in the Top 15
DR: Driver Rating
Led: Laps Led
Stewart owns track-best marks in three major Loop Data categories at the Glen, including a perfect Driver Rating in 2005:
Driver Rating
| Driver | Date | DR |
|---|
| 1. Tony Stewart | 8/05 | 150.0 |
| 2. Tony Stewart | 8/07 | 133.6 |
| 3. Jeff Gordon | 8/07 | 131.6 |
| 4. Tony Stewart | 8/06 | 130.1 |
| 5. Kevin Harvick | 8/06 | 126.4 |
Average Running Position
| Driver | Date | ARP |
|---|
| 1. Tony Stewart | 8/05 | 1.5 |
| 2. Jeff Gordon | 8/07 | 2.0 |
| 3. Tony Stewart | 8/06 | 3.4 |
| 4. Jimmie Johnson | 8/05 | 3.5 |
| 5. Denny Hamlin | 8/07 | 4.3 |
Fastest Laps Run
| Driver | Date | FLR |
|---|
| 1. Tony Stewart | 8/05 | 39 |
| 2. Kurt Busch | 8/06 | 25 |
| 3. Tony Stewart | 8/07 | 23 |
| 4. Tony Stewart | 8/06 | 14 |
| 5. Jeff Gordon | 8/07 | 12 |
